One problem for Arrieta this year has been that the slider isn’t as good. If Arrieta had snapped off another slider, he probably would have fanned Grandal, who was obviously ready to go down and get a sinker.Īt least, that’s what would have happened if he’d successfully thrown a good slider. He threw a slider on the first 3-2 offering, but it had the zone (just above the knees, over the inner third of the plate) and Grandal fouled it off. He’s become very dependent on locating his sinker, and on the fairly frequent occasions when he hasn’t been perfect with that pitch, he’s struggled.Ī 2-2 front-door sinker almost rang up Grandal in that pivotal at-bat Tuesday night, but Arrieta didn’t get the call. So, for that matter, has been his curveball usage. Arrieta’s slider usage has been down across all counts this season. That 50/48 K/BB ratio from 2015 gave way to a 22/76 K/BB ratio in 2016.
961 OPS against Arrieta in three-ball counts this season. You can guess exactly what the ramifications have looked like, if you really try. Jake Arrieta Pitch Usage, Three-Ball Counts, 2015 Season Still, Arrieta was doing something real, something that was helping him get out of deep counts with strikeouts or weak contact. It should be noted that two other pitchers last year alone matched Arrieta’s feat of fanning more than he walked in those counts ( Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner), and that 2013-15 represents the historic nadir of expected offense in three-ball counts, so far. It would seem, then, that Arrieta had some kind of genuine, nigh unprecedented advantage in three-ball counts, something that fueled his success. None of those pitchers faced nearly as many three-ball counts in the first place, though, and only Maddux allowed a lower OPS in those plate appearances. Arrieta struck out more batters than he walked in three-ball counts last season (50 to 48), joining a fraternity that, entering 2015, included: Greg Maddux in 1995, Pedro Martinez in 19, Curt Schilling in 2002, Roy Halladay in 20, and David Price in 2014. Of those 2,013 pitchers, only nine ever allowed a lower OPS in plate appearances that reached a three-ball count than Arrieta’s 2015 mark of. Since every pitch of MLB games began being counted and considered in 1988, there have been 2,013 pitcher seasons of at least 750 batters faced. Batters seemed perpetually off balance, and so unable to hit Arrieta even when he seemed to be on the ropes. There were a lot of deep counts, but hardly any of them turned out to be fruitful. He got there in a strange sort of way, though. In 2015, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. In the eternity spent on that homer-the sheer hang time of the majestic blast, the outburst of emotion from Grandal, the coursing jubilation of the fans and the players in the home dugout, and the difficulty Arrieta had in really collecting himself-there was ample time to reflect on the way that single plate appearance captured Arrieta’s season in microcosm. The Dodgers would wind up winning 6-0, but the drive that made it 3-0 essentially punched out the Cubs in Game 3. With a low, long stride and a vicious uppercut, he assaulted the pitch, launching it easily out of the park to the right of dead center field. Either Grandal knew it was coming, or he adjusted brilliantly. On the fateful full-count pitch, Arrieta appeared to essentially hit his spot, a hair below Grandal’s knees.
When Arrieta cut loose a 3-2 sinker at 93 miles per hour in the bottom of the fourth inning on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers already led the Cubs 1-0, thanks to a hanging slider righteously thwacked for an RBI single by Corey Seager the inning before. It wasn’t really a bad pitch that Jake Arrieta threw to Yasmani Grandal.
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